Pending Home Sales fell sharply across the United States in September 2026, reflecting growing pressure from higher mortgage rates and worsening housing affordability. The latest figures show that buyers are becoming more cautious, creating challenges for the wider real estate market and businesses connected to housing transactions.
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), pending home sales declined 7.3% from August and 11.3% compared with September 2025. All four major U.S. regions recorded drops, pointing to a broad slowdown in contract signings as the fall housing market progressed.
The decline matters because signed contracts often signal future sales activity. When fewer buyers agree to purchase homes, real estate agents, lenders, title companies and other housing-related businesses may face fewer transactions in the months ahead.
The South and West recorded the steepest annual declines. Both regions faced continued affordability challenges as elevated borrowing costs made home purchases more expensive for prospective buyers.
Pending Home Sales Weaken as Mortgage Rates Rise
Mortgage rates remain a major obstacle for many households considering a home purchase. Higher borrowing costs increase monthly loan payments, making it harder for buyers to qualify for financing or stay within their budgets.
Rates have climbed in recent weeks, adding pressure to a market already affected by elevated home prices. Even buyers with steady incomes may reconsider their plans when a higher rate significantly increases the long-term cost of a mortgage.
As a result, some households are delaying purchases while they wait for more favorable financing conditions. Others may reduce their budgets, search for less expensive properties or remain in their current homes for longer.
These decisions can affect more than individual buyers and sellers. Lower transaction volumes may reduce business for mortgage lenders, real estate brokerages, inspectors, appraisers and closing service providers. In addition, fewer sales can make it harder for businesses that depend on a steady flow of property transactions to forecast revenue.
NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun said changing mortgage rates were contributing to weaker housing activity. He also pointed to uncertainty around inflation and the wider economy as factors complicating the market outlook.
However, falling sales do not automatically mean that home prices will decline. Limited distressed-property inventory has continued to support prices, even as some buyers and sellers postpone their transactions.
Regional Trends Show Broad Market Weakness
The September report showed declines in pending home sales across all four major U.S. regions. Both monthly and annual figures weakened, suggesting that the slowdown extends beyond a small group of local markets.
The West recorded the largest declines. Pending home sales in the region fell 9.2% from August and 15.0% compared with September 2025. These figures point to a substantial reduction in contract activity over both periods.
The South also experienced a significant downturn. As the nation’s largest region for existing-home sales, it recorded an 8.2% monthly decline and a 12.0% annual decrease.
These regional results matter because the South accounts for a large share of the country’s existing-home market. A sustained drop in sales there could affect transaction volumes across a broad range of local property markets and related businesses.
Meanwhile, the Northeast recorded the smallest monthly decline, at 4.2%. The Midwest posted the smallest annual decrease, at 8.7%.
Although these regions performed relatively better on the reported measures, they still experienced falling contract activity. The figures therefore suggest that no major region was entirely insulated from the pressure created by financing costs and affordability concerns.
Some Metropolitan Markets Show Greater Resilience
Despite the national decline, some large metropolitan areas experienced smaller annual drops in pending home sales. This difference shows that local market conditions can vary even when borrowing costs rise across the country.
Nashville recorded the smallest annual decline among the 50 largest metropolitan areas, followed by Hartford. San Francisco and San Jose also performed comparatively well, although both markets still reported lower contract activity than a year earlier.
These results do not mean that the four markets avoided the downturn. Instead, they indicate that their declines were less severe than those recorded in other major metropolitan areas.
Local employment conditions, housing supply, prices and buyer demand can all influence transaction activity. Consequently, a national slowdown may affect individual cities at different rates.
For real estate businesses, these differences make local data particularly important. Brokerages and property professionals cannot rely on national figures alone when assessing demand in a specific market. Instead, they need to examine local contract activity, available inventory and financing conditions to understand where sales may hold up better.
Investors and businesses connected to property transactions should also distinguish between a smaller decline and actual market growth. A market that performs better than the national average may still be experiencing fewer sales than it did a year earlier.
Why Pending Home Sales Matter to the Industry
Pending home sales measure contracts signed for existing homes that have not yet completed the closing process. Because transactions generally close within one or two months, the index provides an early signal of future existing-home sales.
This makes the measure useful for tracking changes in housing demand before completed sales figures reflect them. A decline in signed contracts can signal that fewer transactions may reach closing in the near term.
The September results point to possible continued pressure on existing-home sales if mortgage rates remain high and buyers continue to delay purchases. However, pending sales do not guarantee that every signed contract will close, and the final results can also depend on financing approvals and other transaction conditions.
Changes in contract activity can affect a broad network of businesses. Mortgage lenders may receive fewer loan applications, while real estate agents may have fewer deals progressing toward closing. Title companies, appraisers, inspectors and other service providers may also feel the effects if lower transaction volumes persist.
For businesses that depend on property sales, these trends can influence staffing, operating costs and revenue expectations. Monitoring pending sales can therefore help industry participants assess changes in demand before they appear fully in completed transaction data.
Affordability Remains a Central Challenge
The decline in contract signings highlights the continued difficulty many buyers face when trying to afford a home. Mortgage rates are only one part of the problem. Buyers must also account for property prices, insurance, taxes, maintenance and other ownership costs.
When these expenses rise together, households may find it harder to qualify for a mortgage or feel confident about taking on a long-term financial commitment. Some buyers may postpone their plans until their income improves or financing becomes more affordable.
Sellers face their own decisions. Homeowners who are not under pressure to move may choose to wait rather than accept an offer they consider too low. At the same time, limited distressed-property inventory can help prevent widespread price declines, even when sales volumes weaken.
This creates a market in which buyers may have fewer financial options while sellers remain reluctant to reduce asking prices. Consequently, transactions can slow without producing an immediate or substantial drop in home values.
For real estate businesses, the balance between prices and sales volumes is important. Stable prices may support property values, but fewer completed transactions can still reduce revenue for firms that earn fees or commissions from sales.
What the September Results Mean for the Market
The September report presents a challenging picture for the U.S. housing market. Pending home sales fell 7.3% in one month and 11.3% over the year, while all four major regions recorded declines.
The West experienced the sharpest regional downturn, followed by the South. Meanwhile, Nashville, Hartford, San Francisco and San Jose showed comparatively smaller annual declines among major metropolitan markets, although their contract activity remained below year-earlier levels.
Looking ahead, mortgage rates and affordability will remain key factors in determining whether buyers return to the market. A sustained improvement in borrowing conditions could encourage some households to resume their purchase plans. However, continued financial pressure may lead more buyers and sellers to delay transactions.
For businesses across the real estate sector, the data reinforces the importance of tracking contract signings, regional differences and financing conditions. Pending sales provide an early warning of potential changes in completed transactions, but the direction of the market will depend on how buyers and sellers respond in the coming months.
