The Miami housing market has cooled from its feverish pace of recent years, yet an annual global ranking continues to place it as the riskiest in the world. According to Jonathan Woloshin, head of U.S. Real Estate Research at UBS Global Wealth Management, this does not signal an imminent collapse but highlights increased vulnerability. The 2025 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index ranked Miami at the top for the second consecutive year, defining a bubble as “a substantial and sustained mispricing” of homes. After years of soaring prices—especially for single-family properties—concerns of overvaluation are growing. “Miami’s been a great market,” Woloshin said. “But trees don’t grow to the sky.” Since 2019, median single-family home prices have climbed roughly 70% across South Florida, while nationwide prices rose about 50%. Despite this, Woloshin noted that population growth continues to fuel demand and keep the Miami housing market active.
Recently, price increases have slowed as more listings enter the market. Affordability pressures have intensified due to high mortgage rates and rising insurance costs, discouraging younger buyers. Still, Miami maintains one of the lowest unemployment rates among major U.S. metro areas—3.7% in August—supporting the housing sector’s resilience. Miami Association of Realtors Chief Economist Gay Cororaton argues that local price growth reflects solid economic fundamentals rather than speculation. In a response to UBS’s bubble warning, Cororaton wrote that price appreciation stems from genuine demand and supply forces, not the easy credit and speculative buying that fueled the pre-2008 housing bubble.
Woloshin echoed that sentiment, saying, “I don’t think what’s going on in Miami is irrational. But you could argue it’s a bit overdone.” He pointed to the widening gap between home prices and household incomes. Many newcomers to Florida bring higher earnings, driving up prices further. The region’s median household income of around $76,000 supports a mortgage for a $300,000 home—far below the current median single-family price. This disconnect raises questions about long-term affordability and sustainability within the Miami housing market.
A potential game changer could be future property tax reforms. Governor Ron DeSantis and Republican lawmakers have floated proposals to cap, reduce, or even eliminate certain local property taxes, requiring voter approval via constitutional amendment. “If you eliminate property taxes,” Woloshin warned, “you’re going to push up home prices.” As policymakers debate fiscal reform, and population growth continues, Miami remains a paradox of opportunity and risk—making it one of the most closely watched real estate markets in the world.
